Abstract
The power generation sector is increasingly affecting global warming due to its greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Hence, improving the efficiency of thermal power plants is effective action in mitigating national and global GHG emissions. Accordingly, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning has been used to the prediction of electricity consumption and supply, types of costs, and GHG emissions for a 20-year period (2011–2030) in Iran thermal power plants. In this paper, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and seven different scenarios were designed to investigate the impact of simultaneous management of supply-side and demand-side power generation. The findings showed that all alternative scenarios allowing the country to fulfill its unconditional (Nationally Determined Contribution) NDC. Further, the EEP, EPI, and ATD scenarios will have respectively 25%, 22%, and 12% lower emission than the BAU scenario, which will enable Iran to fulfill its conditional NDC by 2030. The superior scenarios in terms of electricity generation costs were found to be EPI and EEP, which will result in approximately US$5 billion cost-saving compared to BAU. The hybrid scenario was known as the preferred scenario, which will generate approximately US$12 billion greater benefit than BAU in terms of net present value.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Thermal Power Plants.
A cost-utility analysis is an analytical tool/technique used in determination of which options provide the best possible approach in adoption/practice in terms of benefits in time, and cost savings (David et al. 2013).
References
Akram R, Chen F, Khalid F, Ye Z, Majeed MT (2020) Heterogeneous effects of energy efficiency and renewable energy on carbon emissions: evidence from developing countries. J Clean Prod 247:119122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119122
Amirnekooei K, Ardehali MM, Sadri A (2012) Integrated resource planning for Iran: development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan. Energy 46:374–385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.013
Aryanpur V, Atabaki MS, Marzband M, Siano P, Ghayoumi K (2019) An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 112:58–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.05.047
Awopone AK, Zobaa AF, Banuenumah W (2017) Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana. Energy Policy 104:13–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.034
Azadi P, Nezam Sarmadi A, Mahmoudzadeh, A, Shirvani T (2017) The Outlook for Natural Gas, Electricity, and Renewable Energy in Iran, Working Paper 3, Stanford Iran 2040 Project, Stanford University. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28876.62089/1
Bao J, Zhang L, Song C, Zhang N, Guo M, Zhang X (2019) Reduction of efficiency penalty for a natural gas combined cycle power plant with post-combustion CO2 capture: integration of liquid natural gas cold energy. Energy Convers Manag 198:111852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111852
Bayomi N, Fernandez JE (2019) Towards sustainable energy trends in the Middle East: a study of four major emitters. Energies 12:1615. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12091615
Bihari P, Gróf G, Gács I (2010) Eficiency and cost modelling of thermal power plants. Therm Sci 14:821–834. https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI1003821B
Carapellucci R, Milazzo A (2007) Repowering combined cycle power plants by a modified STIG configuration. Energy Convers Manag 48:1590–1600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2006.11.024
Chaquet JM, Carmona EJ, Corral R (2012) Using genetic algorithms to improve the thermodynamic efficiency of gas turbines designed by traditional methods. Appl Soft Comput J 12:3627–3635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2012.06.009
Cheng F, Porter MD, Colosi LM (2020) Is hydrothermal treatment coupled with carbon capture and storage an energy-producing negative emissions technology? Energy Convers Manag 203:112252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.112252
David R, Ngulube P, Dube A (2013) A cost-utility analysis of document management strategies used at a financial institution in Zimbabwe: a case study. SA J Inf Manag 15:1–10. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajim.v15i2.540
Emodi NV, Chaiechi T, Alam Beg ABMR (2019) Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model. Appl Energy 236:1183–1217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.045
Emodi NV, Emodi CC, Murthy GP, Emodi ASA (2017) Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: a LEAP model application. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 68:247–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.118
Escosa JM, Romeo LM (2009) Optimizing CO2 avoided cost by means of repowering. Appl Energy 86:2351–2358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.02.015
Farrel J, Morris J, Kheshgi H, Thomann H, Paltsev S, Herzog H (2018) The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference Melbourne 21-26 October 2018 (GHGT-14). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3365585
Ghiasi M, Esmaeilnamazi S, Ghiasi R, Fathi M (2020) Role of renewable energy sources in evaluating technical and economic efficiency of power quality. Technol Econ Smart Grids Sustain Energy 5:1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40866-019-0073-1
Halicioglu F (2009) An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy 37:1156–1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012
Heidari H, Najjar Firoozjaee M, Saeidpour L (2011) Investigating the relationship between electricity consumption, electricity price and economic growth in Iran. IJNAA 19:175–200
Hong S, Chung Y, Kim J, Chun D (2016) Analysis on the level of contribution to the national greenhouse gas reduction target in Korean transportation sector using LEAP model. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 60:549–559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.164
Hosseini SM, Saifoddin A, Shirmohammadi R, Aslani A (2019) Forecasting of CO2 emissions in Iran based on time series and regression analysis. Energy Rep 5:619–631. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.05.004
Howells M, Rogner H, Strachan N, Heaps C, Huntington H, Kypreos S, Hughes A, Silveira S, DeCarolis J, Bazillian M, Roehrl A (2011) OSeMOSYS: The open source energy modeling system. An introduction to its ethos, structure and development. Energy Policy 39:5850–5870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.033
Hu G, Ma X, Ji J (2019) Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model—a case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China. Appl Energy 238:876–886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.162
Hu Y, Gao Y, Lv H, Xu G, Dong S (2018) A new integration system for natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO2 capture and heat supply. Energies 11:3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11113055
IEA (2019) Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2019, IEA, Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-co2-status-report-2019
Jabir HJ, Teh J, Ishak D, Abunima H (2018) Impacts of demand-side management on electrical power systems: a review. Energies 11:1050. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11051050
Kachoee MS, Salimi M, Amidpour M (2018) The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-utility analysis of Iran’s electricity sector. Energy 143:585–596. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.11.049
Kale RV, Pohekar SD (2014) Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: an application of long range energy alternatives planning. Energy Policy 72:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.007
Knutti R, Allen MR, Friedlingstein P, Gregory JM, Hegerl GC, Meehl GA, Meinshausen M, Murphy JM, Plattner G-K, Raper SCB, Stocker TF, Stott PA, Teng H, Wigley TML (2008) A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century. J Clim 21:2651–2663. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1
Koh M, Ju B, Seo W (2019) A review on public understanding of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in South Korea. Energy Procedia 159:315–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.009
McPherson M, Karney B (2014) Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama’s electricity sector. Energy Policy 68:146–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.028
Mehrabani KM, Sadat S, Yazdi F, Mehrpanahi A, Nikbakht S, Abad N (2014) Optimization of exergy in repowering steam power plant by feed water heating using genetic algorithm. Indian J Sci Res 1:183–198
Mehrpanahi A, Hossienalipour SM, Mobini K (2013) Investigation of the effects of repowering options on electricity generation cost on Iran steam power plants. Int J Sustain Energy 32:229–243. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2011.622762
Mehrpanahi A, Payganeh GH (2017) Multi-objective optimization of IGV position in a heavy-duty gas turbine on part-load performance. Appl Therm Eng 125:1478–1489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2017.07.091
Mirjat NH, Uqaili MA, Harijan K, Walasai GD, Mondal MAH, Sahin H (2018) Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): a LEAP model application for policy analysis. Energy 165:512–526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.012
Mohammadi Khoshkar Vandani A, Joda F, Bozorgmehry Boozarjomehry R (2016) Exergic, economic and environmental impacts of natural gas and diesel in operation of combined cycle power plants. Energy Convers Manag 109:103–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.11.048
Moshiri S, Atabi F, Panjehshahi MH, Lechtenböehmer S (2012) Long run energy demand in Iran: a scenario analysis. Int J Energy Sect Manag 6:120–144. https://doi.org/10.1108/17506221211216571
Mousavi B, Lopez NSA, Biona JBM, Chiu ASF, Blesl M (2017) Driving forces of Iran’s CO2 emissions from energy consumption: an LMDI decomposition approach. Appl Energy 206:804–814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.199
Naserabad SN, Mehrpanahi A, Ahmadi G (2018) Multi-objective optimization of HRSG configurations on the steam power plant repowering specifications. Energy 159:277–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.130
Ouedraogo NS (2017) Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa. Appl Energy 190:1047–1067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.162
Peng B, Du H, Ma S, Fan Y, Broadstock DC (2015) Urban passenger transport energy saving and emission reduction potential: a case study for Tianjin. China Energy Convers Manag 102:4–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.01.017
Rokni M (2016) Performance comparison on repowering of a steam power plant with gas turbines and solid oxide fuel cells. Energies 9:399. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9060399
Sa’ed JA, Amer M, Bodair A, Baransi A, Favuzza S, Zizzo G (2019) A simplified analytical approach for optimal planning of distributed generation in electrical distribution networks. Appl Sci 9:5446. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9245446
Salim MS, Kim MH (2019) Multi-objective thermo-economic optimization of a combined organic Rankine cycle and vapour compression refrigeration cycle. Energy Convers Manag 199:112054. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.112054
Simoes S, Nijs W, Ruiz P, Sgobbi A, Thiel C (2017) Comparing policy routes for low-carbon power technology deployment in EU – an energy system analysis. Energy Policy 101:353–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.006
TAVANIR Company Statistics Report (2016) Detailed statistics of Iran electric power industry. Ministry of Power. Tehran-Iran
Wang J, Lu Z, Li M, Lior N, Li W (2019) Energy, exergy, exergoeconomic and environmental (4E) analysis of a distributed generation solar-assisted CCHP (combined cooling, heating and power) gas turbine system. Energy 175:1246–1258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.147
Wang X, Du L (2016) Study on carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment decision-making based on real options for China’s coal-fired power plants. J Clean Prod 112:4123–4131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.112
Welch M, Pym A (2015) Improving the flexibility and efficiency of gas turbine-based distributed power plants. Power Eng 119(9), Available at: https://www.power-eng.com/coal/improving-the-flexibility-and-efficiency-of-gas-turbine-based-distributed-power-plants/#gref
Welsch M, Deane P, Howells M, Gallachóir BO, Rogan F, Bazilian M, Rogner HH (2014) Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models—A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland. Appl Energy 135:600–615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.072
Zandi F, Amanollahi J, Poorhashemi SA, Panahi M (2019) Paris climate changes agreement 2015 operational requirements and legal restrictions of joining Iran. Ekoloji 28:275–282
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank all who assisted in conducting this work.
Funding
Not applicable.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Editorial responsibility: Samareh Mirkia.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sabeti Motlagh, S., Panahi, M., Hemmasi, A.H. et al. A techno-economic and environmental assessment of low-carbon development policies in Iran's thermal power generation sector. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 19, 2851–2866 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03580-z
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03580-z