Abstract
The Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation was performed to evaluate source emission strengths over the United States. The USEPA Models-3 system (CMAQ/MM5/SMOKE) and ridge regression are used as the forward and inverse models, respectively. The continental US is divided into six regions, and data assimilation is performed for each region in July 2001 and January 2002. In addition, two separate scaling factors are calculated for weekdays and weekends. Results show that base emissions for CO and SO2 sources are relatively accurate. Base emissions for PEC source are overestimated 100%, but those for POA source are underestimated up to 70% when compared with the adjusted emissions. Emissions for NH3, NO x , and PMFINE sources are relatively accurate in July 2001, but those in January 2002 are around 100% higher than the adjusted emissions. Base VOC emissions in July 2001 are similar to the adjusted emissions but those in January 2002 are underestimated up to 70% when compared with the adjusted emissions. Though the emission adjustment itself improves the overall air quality model performance, a better improvement is expected with the modification of speciation profiles and temporal allocations in the Models-3 system, as well.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aldrin, M., 1997: Length modified ridge regression. Comput. Stat. Data An., 25, 377–398.
Ames, R. B., and W. C. Malm, 2001: Chemical species’ contribution to the upper extremes of aerosol fine mass. Atmos. Environ., 35, 5193–5204.
Abdel-Aziz, A., and H. C. Frey, 2004: Propagation of uncertainty in hourly utility NOx emissions through a photochemical grid air quality model: A case study for the Charlotte, NC, modeling domain. Environ Sci. Technol., 38, 2153–2160.
Boylan, J. W., M. Odman, J. Wilkinson, and A. G. Russell, 2006: Integrated Assessment Modeling of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: Part 2. Fine Particulate Matter and Visibility. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 56, 12–22.
Butler, A. J., M. S. Andrew, and A. G. Russell, 2003: Daily sampling of PM2.5 in Atlanta: results of the first year of the assessment of spatial aerosol composition in Atlanta study. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, D1, doi:10.1029/2002JD002234.
Byun, D. W., and J. K. Ching, 1999: Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. US-EPA/600/R-99/030
Carter, W. P. L., 2004: Development of a Chemical Speciation Database and Software for Processing VOC Emissions for Air Quality Models. 13 th International Emission Inventory Conference, “Working for Clean Air in Clearwater”, Hilton Clearwater Beach Resort, Clearwater, Florida USA, June 8–10, 2004. [Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei13/modeling/carter.pdf]
Census, cited 2012. Census Regions and Divisions of the United States. [Available online at http://www.census.gov/geo/www/us_regdiv.pdf]
Chang, M. E., D. E. Hartley, C. Cardelino, and W. L. Chang, 1996: Inverse modeling of biogenic isoprene emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 3007–3010.
Di, T., D. S., Cohan, N. Napelenok, M. S. Bergin, Y. T. Hu, M. Chang, A. G. Russell, 2010: Uncertainty analysis of ozone formation and response to emission controls using higher-order sensitivities. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 60, 797–804.
Dunker A. M., 1981: Efficient calculation of sensitivity coefficients for complex atmospheric models. Atmos. Environ., 15, 1155–1161.
Emery, C., and E. Tai, 2001: Enhanced meteorological modeling and performance evaluation for two texas ozone episodes. project report prepared for the texas natural resources conservation commission. Prepared by ENVIRON, International Corporation, Novato, CA, U.S.A.
Frank, I. E., and J. H. Friedman, 1993: A statistical view of some chemometrics regression tools. Technometrics., 35, 109–148.
Gilliland, A. B., R. L. Dennis, S. J. Roselle, and T. E. Pierce, 2003: Seasonal NH3 emission estimates for the eastern United States based on ammonium wet concentrations and an inverse modeling method. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, doi:10.1029/2002JD003063.
Hansen, D. A., E. S. Edgerton, B. E. Hartsell, J. J. Jansen, N. Kandasamy, G. M. Hidy, and C. L. Blanchard, 2003: The southeastern aerosol research and characterization study: Part 1 — Overview. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 53, 1460–1471.
Harley, R. A., A. G. Russell, G. J. McRae, G. R. Cass, and J. H. Seinfeld, 1993: Photochemical modeling of the Southern California air-quality study. Environ. Sci. Technol., 27, 378–388.
Hoerl, A. E., and R. W. Kennard, 1970: Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics., 12, 55–67.
Hogrefe, C., G. Sisttla, E. Zalewsky, W. Hoa, and J. Y., Ku, 2003: An assessment of the emissions inventory processing systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in grid-based air quality models. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 53, 1121–1129.
Hu, Y., S. L. Napelenok, M. T. Odman, and A. G. Russell, 2009a: Sensitivity of inverse estimation of 2004 elemental carbon emissions inventory in the United States to the choice of observational networks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15806, doi:10.1029/2009GL039655.
____, M. T. Odman, and A. G. Russell, 2009b: Top-down analysis of the elemental carbon emissions inventory in the United States by inverse modeling using Community Multiscale Air Quality model with decoupled direct method (CMAQ-DDM). J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D24302, doi:10.1029/2009JD011987.
Koch, S.E., M. Desjardins, and P. J. Kocin, 1983: An Interactive barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 1487–1503.
Mannschreck, K., D. Klemp, D. Kley, R. Friedrich, J. Kuhlwein, B. Wickert, P. Matuska, M. Habram, and F. Slemr, 2002: Evaluation of an emission inventory by comparisons of modeled and measured emission rates of individual HCs, CO and NOx. Atmos. Environ., 36, S81–S94.
Marquardt, D. W., 1963: An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. J. Soc. Indust. Appl. Math., 11, 431–441.
Mendoza-Dominguez, A., and A. G. Russell, 2000: Iterative inverse modeling and direct sensitivity analysis of a photochemical air duality model. Environ. Sci. Technol., 34, 4974–4981.
____, and _____, 2001a: Emission strength validation using fourdimensional data assimilation: Application to primary aerosol and precursors to ozone and secondary aerosol. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 51, 1538–1550.
____, and _____, 2001b: Estimation of emission adjustments from the application of four-dimensional data assimilation to photochemical air quality modeling. Atmos. Environ., 35, 2879–2894.
Menke, W., 1989: Geophysical data analysis, vol. 45: Discrete inverse theory. Academic Press, 289 pp.
Muller, J. F., T. Stavrakou, 2005: Inversion of CO and NOx emissions using the adjoint of the IMAGES model. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1157–1186.
Odman, M. T., A. G. Russell, 1991: Multiscale modeling of pollutant transport and chemistry. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 96, D4, doi:10.1029/91JD00387.
Pace, T. G., 2003: A conceptual model to adjust fugitive dust emissions to account for near source particle removal in grid model applications. Proc. of Joint Meeting of WRAP Emissions & Fugitive Dust Forums, Las Vegas, NV, U.S.A.
Park, R., D. J. Jacob, B. D. Field, R. M. Yantosca, and M. Chin, 2004: Natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols in the United States: Implication for policy. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D15204, doi:10.1029/2003JD004473.
Park, S.-K., C. E. Cobb, K. Wade, J. Mulholland, Y. Hu, A. G. Russell, 2006: Uncertainty in air quality model evaluation from spatial variation. Atmos. Environ., 40, S563–S573.
____, A. Marmur, A. G. Russell, 2013: Environmental risk assessment: comparison of receptor and air quality models for Source apportionment. Hum. Ecol. Risk. Assess. in press.
Petron, G., C. Granier, B. Khattatov, V. Yudin, J. F. Lamarque, L. Emmons, J. Gille, D. P. Edwards, 2004: Monthly CO surface sources inventory based on the 2000–2001 MOPITT satellite data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21107, doi:10.1029/2004GL020560.
Placet, M., C. O. Mann, R. O. Gilbert, M. J. Niefer, 2000: Emissions of ozone precursors from stationary sources: a critical review. Atmos. Environ., 34, 2183–2204.
PSU/NCAR, cited 2012. PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Modeling System Tutorial Class Notes and User’s Guide: MM5 Modeling System Version 3. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research. [Available online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/documents/tutorial-v3-notes.html]
Russell, A., R. Dennis, 2000: NARSTO critical review of photochemical models and modeling. Atmos. Environ., 34, 2283–2324.
Sakulyanontvittaya, T., T. Duhl, C. Wiedinmyer, D. Helmig, S. Matsunaga, M. Potosnak, J. Milford, A. Guenther, 2008: Monoterpene and Sesquiterpene emission estimates for the United States. Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 1623–1629.
Sawyer, R. F., R. A. Harley, S. H. Cadle, J. M. Norbeck, R. Slott, H. A., Bravo, 2000: Mobile sources critical review: 1998 NARSTO assessment. Atmos. Environ., 34, 2161–2181
Stavrakou, T., J. F. Muller, 2006: Grid-based versus big region approach for inverting CO emissions using Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) data. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D15304, doi:10.1029/2005JD006896.
Taghavi, M., S. Cautenet, and J. Arteta, 2005: Impact of a highly detailed emission inventory on modeling accuracy. Atmos. Res., 74, 65–88.
UCAR, cited 2012: TDL U.S. and Canada surface hourly observations. [Available online at http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds472.0/]
Unal A., Y. T. Hu, M. E. Chang, M. T. Odman, A. G. Russell, 2005: Airport related emissions and impacts on air quality: Application to the Atlanta International Airport. Atmos. Environ. 39, 5787–5798
US-EPA, cited 2012a: Ozone and Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) program. [Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/pamsmain.html.]
____, cited 2012b: SMOKE User’s manual. [Available online at http://www.smoke-model.org]
____, cited 2012c: Technology Transfer Network: Clearinghouse for Inventories & Emissions Factors. [Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief]
____, cited 2012d: North American Emissions Inventories — Mexico. [Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/mexico.html]
____, cited 2012e: North American Emissions Inventories — Canada. [Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/canada.hrml]
____, cited 2012f: Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) Modeling. [Available online at http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/biogen.html]
____, cited 2012g: Continuous Emission Monitoring — Information, Guidance, etc. [Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/emc/cem.html]
____, cited 2012h: Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse Temporal Allocation. [Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/emch/temporal/]
____, cited 2012i: Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse Speciation. [Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/emch/speciation/]
____, cited 2012j: EGAS Version 5.0. [Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/egas5.htm]
____, cited 2012k: Criteria Pollutant Emissions Summary Files [Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/critsummary.html]
____, cited 2012l: 2002 National Emissions Inventory Data & Documentation. [Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2002inventory.html]
Vautard, R., and Coauthors, 2003: Paris emission inventory diagnostics from ESQUIF airborne measurements and a chemistry transport model. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, D17, doi:10.1029/2002JD002797.
Warneke C., and Coauthors, 2010: Biogenic emission measurement and inventories determination of biogenic emissions in the eastern United States and Texas and comparison with biogenic emission inventories. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D00F18, doi:10.1029/2009JD012445.
Yang Y. J., J. G. Wilkinson, and A. G. Russell, 1997: Fast, direct sensitivity analysis of multidimensional photochemical models. Environ. Sci. Technol. 31, 2859–2868.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Park, SK., Russell, A.G. Regional adjustment of emission strengths via four dimensional data assimilation. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 49, 361–374 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0034-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0034-x