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Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes

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Abstract

Quantitative estimates of potential losses that may be caused by future great earthquakes along the Himalaya suggest that as many as 150,000 people may die, 300,000 may be injured and typically 3,000 settlements will be affected in a single event. Scenario results used here vary and are based on ruptures of 150 km segments of the plate boundary at seven positions, where sufficient elastic energy is believed to be stored for magnitude eight earthquakes. The method of calculating these results was calibrated, using the 17 disastrous Indian earthquakes, which have occurred since 1980. About 50 settlements in the region are considered most at risk because in each more than 2000 fatalities may occur.

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  1. World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, Route de Malagnou 36A, CH-1208, Geneva, Switzerland

    Max Wyss

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  1. Max Wyss
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Correspondence to Max Wyss.

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Wyss, M. Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes. Nat Hazards 34, 305–314 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-2073-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-2073-1

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