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Prospect of water energy environment nexus under energy and climate change scenarios (case study: Urmia Lake Basin)

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Abstract

The water energy environment (WEE) nexus models have become indispensable for the integrated natural resources management under the growing regional and global risks and insecurities in pursuit of sustainable development. A new framework has been developed based on bottom-up energy system model and the related greenhouse gas emissions which aimed to predict and depict an apparent WEE nexus outlook for residential, electric power, industry, and agriculture sectors under various scenarios. Bottom-up nexus modeling has been done by Long Energy Alternative Planning software tool for the mentioned sectors from 2016 to 2040. The Urmia Lake basin covering 52,000 Km2 as a vulnerable region to climate change located in the northwest of Iran is selected as a case study in this paper. The UL basin’s demographic and economic data were used as energy demand drivers. Discussion of the results based on the detailed energy and emission analysis under different scenarios showed the most energy saving and environmental pollutants abatement potential equal to 27.76 million barrels of oil equivalent and 11.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents under the Integrated Policy (IP) scenario up to 2040. Sensitivity analysis of total energy demand to socioeconomic changes shows mean increases of 3% and 2% to each unit increase in the population and gross domestic product. The cost–benefit analysis for the IP scenario indicates more net present values if the interest rate remains less than 8%.

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Abbreviations

UL:

Urmia Lake

CO2eq:

Carbon dioxide equivalent

GHG:

Greenhouse Gas

NG:

Natural Gas

CC:

Climate Change

GDP:

Gross Domestic Product

WEE:

Water Energy Environment

LEAP:

Long Energy Alternative Planning

MCM:

Million Cubic Meters

MBOE:

Million Barrels of Crude Oil Equivalent

MMTCDE:

Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalents

UNFCC:

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

TED:

Technology and Environmental Database

SD:

Sustainable Development

M$:

Million Dollar

BAU:

Business As Usual

DSM:

Demand-Side Management

EPI:

Energy Prices Increase

CCE:

Climate Change Effect

IP:

Integrated Policy

SA:

Sensitivity Analysis

NPV:

Net Present Value

CBA:

Cost–Benefit Analysis

TED:

Technology and Environmental Database

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Acknowledgment

We thank the editor and seven anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, which helped us to improve the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    M. Moadel, Z. Abedi & A. Kani

  2. Department of Energy System Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, No. 15, Pardis St., Molasadra Ave., Vanak Sq., Tehran, Iran

    M. Amidpour

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  1. M. Moadel
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Correspondence to M. Amidpour.

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Editorial responsibility: M. Abbaspour.

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Moadel, M., Amidpour, M., Abedi, Z. et al. Prospect of water energy environment nexus under energy and climate change scenarios (case study: Urmia Lake Basin). Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 19, 10649–10662 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04244-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04244-2

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