Abstract
Long-term projections of the social-and-economic area and the science-and-technological area alike are gaining importance in their agenda-setting role. The evolution of the models and their applications initially followed the path of gradual sophistication by way of an increasingly more elaborate representation of the economy and the energy sector, which was later superseded by hierarchically-built models. Striving for an utterly comprehensive while mathematically tractable treatment of development dynamics and non-linear relationships within the system studied as well as the detailed representation of its structure can go against the grain of the inherent uncertainty of input economic data and the mutable nature of properties of complex systems. Hence the necessity to match the accuracy of calculation results with the accuracy of the input data. To this end, a novel incremental multi-stage approach to long-term energy sector projections is outlined, which is built upon the structural analysis of the projection range.
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Notes
- 1.
Academician Nikita N. Moiseev, while referring to international practices of building models for projections of the economic development, pointed out that creating ever more accurate models, striving for accounting for the increasingly large number of internal links and details of a given process yield negative results, i.e. the more accurate model representations were, the worse their predictive power was [13]. Arguably, a statement by a renowned mathematician René Frédéric Thom, known as the founder of catastrophe theory, relates to modeling economic systems of such complexity: “The more rigorous the less meaningful”.
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Kononov, Y.D. (2020). Further Development of the Long-Term Projections Methodology for the Energy Sector. In: Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector . Springer Geophysics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30533-8_2
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