Abstract
This study develops a scenario-based model to analyze the impact of energy policies that may influence Queensland’s transition towards a low carbon society by 2050. The Schwartz scenario methodology was applied in techno-economic and environmental contexts and the Long-range Energy Alternative and planning system was used to analyze the performance of the scenarios. The scenarios include a Business as Usual (BAU) case and three alternative scenarios which represent the policy options added in incremental order. The three alternative scenarios and BAU scenario were compared in terms of energy, economic and environmental aspects. The results show that if Queensland expanded its current renewable energy target and increased energy efficiency policies, increased benefits in emission and cost savings could be achieved by 2050. A sensitivity analysis showed that the increased penetration of renewables in the electricity grid would not only diversify Queensland energy mix, but ensure energy security and economic benefits of 54.4–57.2% cost savings depending on the policies implemented. Therefore, this study recommends an increased share of renewables in Queensland energy mix above 83% by 2050, since the investment cost today will outweigh the high fueling cost, environmental pollution and energy security concern in the future.
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Notes
- 1.
A more detailed description of the scenarios can be provided on request to the author.
- 2.
Australian Government Budget 2017–18, Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 6: Expenses and Net Capital Investment, http://www.budget.gov.au, last accessed 2017/11/25.
- 3.
IEA (International Energy Agency) Homepage, Photovoltaic Energy. 4th edition, https://www.iea.org, last accessed 2017/12/02.
- 4.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Homepage, http://www.ipcc.ch, last accessed 2017/10/18.
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Emodi, N.V., Chaiechi, T., Rabiul Alam Beg, A.B.M. (2019). A Techno-Economic and Environmental Analysis of Queensland’s Transition Towards a Low Carbon Society. In: Kaparaju, P., Howlett, R., Littlewood, J., Ekanyake, C., Vlacic, L. (eds) Sustainability in Energy and Buildings 2018. KES-SEB 2018. Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, vol 131. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04293-6_18
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