Abstract
This chapter compares and combines key background information from political history and non-survey data with people’s perceptions as captured in surveys, to explore trends in people’s perceptions and political preferences before and after the Uprisings. This data suggest that people across all three countries are committed both to the idea of democracy and to its parliamentary institutional form, but that they have a more expansive understanding of democracy which includes social and economic rights. Furthermore, people’s attitudes on the relationship between religion and politics shows that while most identify as religious and do wish to see a stronger relationship between religion and legislation, substantial majorities do not trust religious leaders and do not want them to influence voting or government decisions.
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Notes
- 1.
Ennahda had already stated that it would not call into question the personal status legislation (Allani 2009).
- 2.
In this chapter we draw on four surveys: the Arab Barometer II carried out in Jordan in December 2010, Egypt June 2011 and Tunisia October 2011; Arab Barometer III Jordan December 2010/January 2013, Egypt April 2013, Tunisia February 2013; Arab Transformations Survey carried out in Jordan, June 2014, Egypt November 2014 and Tunisia August 2014; and the World Values Survey carried out in Egypt and Jordan in 2013 and Tunisia in 2014. Unless otherwise indicated, references to 2011 public opinions are based on Arab Barometer II, to 2013 Arab Barometer III and to 2014 the Arab Transformations Survey.
- 3.
It should be noted that Egyptian respondents answering, ‘don’t know’ (DK) increased from 9% in 2011 to 34% in 2014 (in Jordan they were 8.5% and 2.2%, in Tunisia 21.1% and 11.4%). Because analysis looks to identify respondents giving a definitive answer, DKs should be understood as not agreeing. It is possible that an increase in DKs could be connected to the political turmoil of the post-2013 period, in which the Brotherhood used pro-democratic arguments to reject the Army’s coup against then-President Morsi.
References
Sources of Data
Arab Barometer survey Waves II and III. http://www.arabbarometer.org/instruments-and-data-files
Arab Democracy Index. http://www.arab-reform.net/en/node/285
Arab Transformations survey data. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316553681_Arab_Transformations_Project_Data _Set_SPSS_Version
Bertelsmann Transformation Index. https://www.bti-project.org/en/index/
Fragile State index. http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/
Polity IV data. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
World Governance Indicators. http://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi
World Values Survey Data Set. http://wvs-online.com/wvs.jsp
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Teti, A., Abbott, P., Cavatorta, F. (2018). Political Challenges: Expectations and Changes 2011–2014. In: The Arab Uprisings in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. Reform and Transition in the Mediterranean. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69044-5_3
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